Quiz show dilemma

[Spotty Herbert]

I was wondering whether Morrissey fans were familiar with this famous logic problem. I have adapted it slightly to increase its relevance to this site.

You are a contestant on a game show and are given a choice of three doors. You are told that behind one of the doors is a voucher entitling you to a lifetime supply of your favourite soup; behind each of the other two doors is a bucket of shit from a donkey’s arse.

You choose one of the doors; the host of the show then opens one of the other two doors to reveal a bucket of shit.

This leaves two doors, one of which you originally chose. The host then gives you the option of switching to the other door.

Should you switch or stick with your original choice of door?

Additional Information:

You have watched the show several times and know that the host always gives the contestant an opportunity to switch.

The host is fully aware of what is behind each door.

 

[Rowdy Yeats]

I think I would stay with the original door. If I'm not mistaken (which I probably am) and wasn't a bit hung over, I might be able to figure it out, anyway I think it's a 50-50 chance.

My reasoning of sticking with the original door, is that Vauxhall and I and Your Arsenal were pretty damn good, and people had written Moz off after 'Kill Uncle' and that 'Bona Drag' new album debacle. I also would point out people like Lou Reed, Neil Young, Nick Lowe, Iggy Pop, and others who have made some missteps and mediocre albums, but also made some great records late in their career.

So that's my reasoning. I'm hoping I don't get the donkeysh*t.

 

[Spotty Herbert]

> I think I would stay with the original door. If I'm not mistaken (which I
> probably am) and wasn't a bit hung over, I might be able to figure it out,
> anyway I think it's a 50-50 chance.

Most people tends to think it’s 50-50, but in fact choosing to switch doubles your chances of winning the soup. This is the Monty Hall problem. I’ve put a link to one of many websites below.

> My reasoning of sticking with the original door, is that Vauxhall and I
> and Your Arsenal were pretty damn good, and people had written Moz off
> after 'Kill Uncle' and that 'Bona Drag' new album debacle. I also would
> point out people like Lou Reed, Neil Young, Nick Lowe, Iggy Pop, and
> others who have made some missteps and mediocre albums, but also made some
> great records late in their career.

Very true , but I think the maths wins out. Thanks for the reply.




The Monty Hall Page

 

[Rowdy Yeats]

I get it now. Pretty brainy stuff.

I'm going to switch my allegiance to Radiohead now.